Author: foxtrot

• Absence of reserves hampers Russian offensive in Luhansk

  ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, February 19. This report forecasts the unlikelihood of significantly increased Russian offensive operations this winter based on an assessment of Russian forces already committed to active operations compared with Russia’s overall ground forces order of battle. The major phase of Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast is…

• Putin is avoiding risk-taking that could threaten international escalation

  ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, February 5. This report focuses on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cautious approach to risk-taking after having thrown the dice on launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, an act he likely did not see as a risk. Putin’s hesitant wartime decision making demonstrates his…

• Russian forces kill 400 Ukraine troops in 24-hour period

  In Kupyansk direction, the artillery of the ‘Zapad’ Group of Forces has neutralised the units from 14th and 92nd mechanised brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) near Sinkovka, Ivanovka, Berestovoye (Kharkov region), and Novosyolovskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic). ️ The operations of 6 AFU sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been prevented near Gryanikovka, Liman…

• Russia, Ukraine exchange prisoners-of-war

  Russian decisive offensive operations are unlikely to target Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline as the Russian military continues to prepare for an offensive in western Luhansk Oblast. Advisor to the exiled Ukrainian mayor of Mariupol, Petro Andryushenko, stated that Russian soldiers in Mariupol are telling residents that the Russian military ordered offensive operations…

• U.S. announces $2.2 billion military aid package

  The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missiles for HIMARS. The package includes Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDM) that will increase the range of HIMARS to 151km from roughly 80km. The package also includes Javelin anti-armor systems, two HAWK air defense firing…

• Ukraine forces kill 840 Russian troops in 24 hours, raising total to almost 130,000)

  The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 03.02.23 were approximately:personnel ‒ about 129870 (+840) persons were liquidated,tanks ‒ 3215 (+4),APV ‒ 6388 (+6),artillery systems – 2215 (+3),MLRS – 460 (+2),Anti-aircraft warfare systems ‒ 222 (+0),aircraft – 294 (+1),helicopters – 284 (+0),UAV operational-tactical level – 1952 (+1),cruise missiles ‒ 796 (+0),warships / boats…

• Institute for the Study of War: Russia blocks internet in Luhansk, signal of offensive to come

  A Ukrainian intelligence official stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to capture Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023, supporting ISW’s most likely course of action assessment (MLCOA) for a Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Representative Andriy Chernyak told the Kyiv Post on February 1…

• Ukraine Defense Ministry:  Ukraine forces kill 610 Russian troops in 24-hour period

  The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.2022 to 02.02.2023 were approximately: Operational information as of 18.00, 02.02.2023  The three hundred and forty-fourth day of the russian large-scale invasion continues. During the day, the enemy launched 2 missile strikes on the civilian infrastructure of the city of Kramatorsk, Donetsk region. As a result, 13…

• Ukraine Defense Ministry: Ukraine forces kill 920 Russian troops in 24-hour period

  The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 01.02.23 were approximately: Day 343 of the full-scale russian military aggression continues.  During the day, the enemy carried out 2x missile strikes (on civilian infrastructure of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, Donetsk oblast); 2x air strikes and 24x MLRS attacks.  The threat of air and missile strikes…

• Institute for the Study of War: Russian military deflects blame for Makiivka losses onto Donetsk puppet government

  Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted all drones from two consecutive nights of Russian drone strike attacks against Ukraine on December 31 – January 2. Ukraine’s air force reported on January 1 that Ukrainian air defense forces shot down all 45 Russian Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones that Russia fired at Ukraine on New Year’s Eve. Ukrainian Air…