November 10, 2015

Ukraine, Syria and the Downfall of U.S.-Russia Relations

James Goldgeier, Dean, School of Intl. Service, American University

In a prescient speech, Dr. Goldgeir was able to predict seven years prior that a full-scale offensive in Ukraine was bound to occur so long as Putin remained at the head of the Russian State. Much like the U.S. strategy toward the Syrian Civil War, a policy of containment for the previous and current iterations of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has failed due to the outpouring of refugees from combat-torn areas across the region. Goldgeir also predicted that Putin may become more amicable to U.S. demands if the price of oil were to drop—the opposite happened. The economic losses from oil dropping to almost $20 per gallon during peak COVID-dismay in 2020 did not deter Putin from launching an attack in early 2022.