Peculiarities of Russia’s open armed aggression against Ukraine

March 20, 2022      

Enemy is continuing strategic offensive operation against our State.
Russian troops are taking up defense on the captured thresholds, regroup and develop logistic support system in order to provide the assault of Kyiv and other main cities of Ukraine, as well as surround the Joint Forces grouping.
With a purpose to augment/renew operational capabilities of russian offensive grouping, invaders are forming additional units/reserves with their further relocation to Ukraine.
Direct involvement of belarussian armed forces to military operation against Ukraine remains probable.
Operational environment At present, highest activity of russian land grouping is being exposed in the Joint Forces Operation area.
Two Tu-22M3 long-range bombers were acting in aerial space of eastern part of the Black sea, as well as two MiG-31 fighters – in aerial space over Kursk region.
It is highly likely that aggressor is defining the thresholds for launching Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” missiles (range up to 1000 km) on objects on the territory of our State.
Occupants conduct aerial reconnaissance (7 flights since the beginning of the day) and surface surveillance in the north-western part of the Black Sea to clarify Ukrainian Armed Forces positions/objects of firing.
There are indicators of possible belarussian armed forces involvement into the armed aggression against Ukraine. Representatives of Belarussian embassy to Ukraine started evacuation on the 19th of March. Moreover, mechanized/special operation units of belarussian armed forces were documented to be relocated/planning relocation to the areas near UKR border.
General staff of russian armed forces has finished planning of the next phase of military operation against Ukraine for the nearest 2 months. In particular, massive fire strike is expected to be performed with artillery, aviation and fleet troops on the 24th of March. Mentioned is designed for massive losses among our troops, command and control system undermining and creation of favorable conditions for advance.


Volynskyi OZ
BTG of 120th SepMRBde (up to 50 pieces of military vehicles, including tanks, IFVs) has arrived to the settlements Sukhe and Yaechkovychi (Ivaniv district of Brest region, belarus, 20-25 km far from UKR border). Belarussian soldiers started to use
insignia (red stripes) similar to russians.


Pollisskyi OZ
Designated units of Eastern MD and airborne troops provide engineering fortification on captured thresholds and prepare for offence towards Kyiv.
Enemy has taken up defense on the threshold Bucha – Demydiv – Horenychi in Bucha district of Kyiv region.
Forward command post of 45th SepSOFBde of airborne troops is deployed in Ivankiv (Kyiv region).

Occupants conduct aerial reconnaissance for searching of the favorable area to break through our defense near Vyshgorod.
Belarussian military command is preparing to possible offense on the positions of our troops. In particular, additional units of 5th SepSOFBde of belarus armed forces are planned to be relocated to Slovechno (Elsk district, Homel region, belarus)
on the border of Ukraine.


Siverskyi OZ
There were no intensive offensive actions. Units of Central MD are regrouping and replenishing resources of missiles/ammunition and fuel. In the nearest time, there will be new attempts to resume offence: 41st CAA towards Chernihiv and 90th TA – Kyiv.
41st CAA forces grouping maintains partial blockade of Chernihiv with continuing artillery shelling of the city in order to destroy civil infrastructure objects.
Rear command post of Central MD is deployed near Vyshneve (Chernihiv region).
Enemy maintains aerial reconnaissance for detection of favorable routes for rounding of Brovary during offense towards Kyiv.

 

Slobozhanskiy OZ
Units of 1st TA of Western MD continue blockade of Sumy and Okhtyrka, meanwhile units of 6th TA and Northern Fleet – Kharkiv.

During another assault of Izum, invaders tried to break through our defense, but failed. Enemy’s forward units have huge losses. Considering following, additional tank and motor rifle units from 1st TA were relocated nearby Izum.
2 missile battalions equipped with “Iskander-M” OTMC (appr. 9 launchers) probably from 448th MBde (Kursk) of 20th CAA of Western MD have arrived to Rylsk (Kursk region, 30 km far from UKR border).


Donetsk OZ
Main efforts of 1st and 2nd ACs, 150th MRDiv of 8th and 58th CAAs of Southern MD are concentrated on capturing of Mariupol, preparation to resume advance towards Volnovakha direction and taking control over Severodonetsk, Rubizhne and Popasna respectively.
Russian occupation administration made a decision about next wave of mobilization of military obliged persons on TOT of Donetsk region.


Tavriyskiy and Southern Bug OZs
Subunits of 8th, 49th, 58th CAAs, 22nd AC of the Black Sea Fleet of Southern MD and airborne troops are regrouping in order prepare of assault of Zaporizhzhya, Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih directions.
Units of “Rosgvardiya” are planning to perform “special measures” (March, 20) in Horly, Maksyma Gorkogo and Pryvillya of Kherson region to prevent local population’s strikes against occupational authorities.

Azov-Black Sea OZ
Ships of Russian Black sea fleet block maritime economic activity of Ukraine in north-western parts of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
There are no indicators of preparation to naval landing operation on Black sea shore of Ukraine.
Russian occupants deployed surface surveillance “MR-10” coastal radar station on the captured Zmiinyi island in order to build up maritime traffic control system and surveillance of activity of Ukrainian Naval Forces and Sea Guard of State Border
Guard Service.
Russian occupation forces’ terrorist and unlawful activity The enemy continues to commit criminal acts against the civilian population of Ukraine with providing the opportunity to evacuate only to russia. In order to prevent their return to the territory of our country the occupying forces confiscate the passports of Ukrainian citizens.
An information campaign is underway to accuse “Ukrainian nationalists” of preparing to carry out terrorist acts against diplomatic missions of the United States and other countries in Lviv. At the same time, The russian ministry of defense continues to spread fake information about the mining of chemical industry facilities by Ukrainian troops in Mykolayiv and Sumy regions.
In order to promote population to military enlistment, russian authorities have started disseminating advertisements for service in the reserve on job search services.
The rf is manipulating the issue of deteriorating security in Afghanistan and its military presence in the region, in order to force the Central Asian governments to support russia’s “special military operation” against Ukraine and to limit cooperation of the Central Asia with Western countries.
Against the background of russia’s involvement of military bases from the South Caucasus in combat actions in Ukraine, russia is conducting an information campaign in Tajikistan using the capabilities of controlled media and Tajik social networks. There are narratives spreading that “the success of the russian AF in Ukraine” forces Western countries to organize a “second front” against russia in the Central Asian region.
According to reports, “Western countries” intend to provoke deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan in order to create a refugees influx (primarily in Tajikistan) and encourage the rf to intervene in the situation.
The main emphasis is following: (1) 2.5-4 thousand militants of the terrorist group “IS” (Khorasan Province), who are planning to enter Tajikistan as refugees, are concentrated in the northern provinces of Afghanistan (in particular in Badakhshan province); (2) the main sponsor of “IS” is the USA, and the humanitarian disaster is provoked by the UN.

Abbreviations list
TOT – temporary occupied territories;
MD – military district;
OZ – operational zone;
AOR – are of responsibility;
JOF – Joint Operation Forces:
CAA – combined arms army
TA – tank army
AC – army corps
MRBde – motorized rifle brigade;
MRRegt – motorized rifle regiment;
MB – military base;
BTGs – battalion tactical group;
TG – tactical group;
CTG – company tactical group;
SOF – special operation forces;
MLRS – multiple launch rocket system;
HPP – hydro power plant.